CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-06-04T10:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-06-04T10:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25453/-1
CME Note: CME seen to the southwest in all coronagraphs (SOHO LASCO C2/C3, STEREO A COR2). Leading edge is faint and wide. Source is a large filament eruption seen spanning from about S32W10 to S10W50 in SDO AIA 304 starting at about 2023-06-04T09:00Z (Centered at S25W30). Post-eruptive dimming can be seen in SDO AIA 193 along the southwest quadrant of the Sun at 09:27Z, and ejecta can be seen off the southwest limb in SDO AIA 171 at 09:42Z. The filament can also be seen erupting in STEREO A EUVI 195/304 starting at 08:25Z/8:15Z, respectively. From LASSOS team discussion: this signature is likely a flank arrival of a CME passing West of Earth.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-06-07T22:25Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-06-08T07:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
From 2023-06-05 URSIgram: "...A filament eruption occurred in the southwestern quadrant of the Sun from around 08:30 UTC on June 4th. The associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph data from 10:36 UTC on June 4th. The CME is directed to the south-west and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow of the shock may impact Earth in the late evening of June 07 or in the first half of June 08. In case of arrival, active geomagnetic conditions can be expected with possibly associated minor storm conditions. During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations."Lead Time: 58.22 hour(s)
Difference: -8.58 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mattie Anastopulos (M2M Office) on 2023-06-05T12:12Z
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